scratchjuniordesktop|非农数据引爆市场！黄金美元大逆转，投资者如何把握机遇？

Special topicScratchjuniordesktopIn April, non-farmers fell far behind expectations, and in February and March, non-farmers were revised down 2.Scratchjuniordesktop.20,000 people

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States increased by only 17 percent in April.Scratchjuniordesktop50, 000 jobs, down nearly 50 per cent from the upward revision of 315000 (up from 303000). The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and the annual wage rate fell to 3.9%.

Huitong financial app-the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the United States added only 175000 jobs in April, down nearly 50 percent from the upward revision of 315000 (up from 303000). The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% and the annual wage rate fell to 3.9%.

The data showed that economic weakness was widespread, and although employment was much lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose more than expected, from 3.8% to 3.9%, while previous estimates were flat.

Wages also fell, with average hourly wages rising 0.2 per cent month-on-month, below the expected increase of 0.3 per cent and down from 0.3 per cent last month. Earnings grew at an annualised rate of 3.9%, down from 4.1% last month and below expectations of 4.0%.

Earlier, ADP said American companies added 192000 jobs in April. It's a far cry from the estimated 240000. In fact, as the chart below shows, this is the biggest decline since December 2021.

Non-agricultural post-market reaction

After the release of the data, gold rose nearly $20 in the short term, followed by a dive of $17. As of press time, it was at $2306.30, up 0.13% on the day. The dollar index tumbled about 65 points before recovering some of its losses to 104.7719 as of press time, down 0.6 per cent on the day.

(spot gold 10-minute trend chart sourceScratchjuniordesktopYi Huitong)

(10-minute trend chart of US dollar index Source: Yi Huitong)

As the non-agricultural market unexpected, the market reaction is very fierce after the release of the data, the following is the market reaction within 1 minute after the release of the data. Among them, gold jumped 15 U.S. dollars a minute to 2320 U.S. dollars / ounce, silver jumped 0.5 U.S. dollars a minute to 26.855, US crude oil short-term also jumped 28 cents to 79.62. The euro jumped 54 points to 1.0811 against the dollar in one minute, while the dollar index plunged more than 50 points to below 104.60 in one minute.

The weaker-than-expected data could add to expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates soon. Traders advanced their expectations of the Fed's first rate cut from November to September. The Fed is now expected to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points in 2024, compared with one before non-farmers.

Treasury yields began to fall before the data were released, and the decline deepened after the data. The current yield on 10-year Treasuries is 4.469%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note is 4.743%.

Analysts see it this way:

Analyst Chris Anstey said that this month's non-farm data finally recorded weak growth, and it is worth noting that unemployment is rising while the labor force participation rate remains stable. Wage growth in the non-farm report was also lower than expected, which may be the biggest problem. It should also be noted that the revision to the previous two months resulted in a cumulative loss of employment by 22000. This is a report of overall weakness. In the service industry, wages account for a larger share of the cost base, and in theory, a slowdown in income should help ease the price pressure on the service industry. The Fed's preferred "super core" service sector inflation indicator (excluding housing) has been on the rise since mid-2023, which is clearly not what the Fed wants to see.

Commodities analyst Andrea Lisi commented on April non-Farmers: as I feared after Chairman Powell's press conference on Wednesday, he may already know that today's jobs report is going to be weaker. Non-farm payrolls were 175000, while the market was widely expected to be 243000, with average hourly wages falling below 4 per cent.

This economic cycle is showing signs similar to many other cycles, and there may be a hard landing rather than a soft landing. At present, the labor market, the backbone of the US economy, is in danger. The financial situation of the average American is far from sound, which should be of serious concern.

Credit card balances have reached unprecedented levels and the savings rate has fallen to a record low. In this case, many low-and middle-income Americans are particularly vulnerable. If unemployment rises sharply and unemployment increases, there will be no fiscal cushion for a rainy day.

Since consumption accounts for almost 70% of GDP, demand is likely to remain very weak until the deleveraging process is completed. When the cycle changes, I think the decline in inflation will be in line with the extent of the recession.

My favorite indicator these days is the credit spread between investment-grade and high-yield bonds, both of which are at historic lows. Once, even before the economy weakens, these spreads soar, and that's when we have to worry.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said this is a set of non-farm data that is very market-friendly, at least in the short term. We are at a time when bad news may be good news. The economic cooling they portray is exactly what bond investors want to see, and the reaction of the stock market suggests that the market immediately grasped it. In the long run, we can debate whether this marks the beginning of economic deterioration, but it will spoil the market carnival this morning.

Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors: this is an employment report that is quite beneficial to the market. This roughly suggests that job growth is slowing moderately, but not collapsing, which helps to reduce wage pressures. At the same time, employment and working hours in manufacturing are stable, indicating that part of the economy continues to receive solid support.

With only six months to go before the US presidential election, the labour market seems to be turning. To be sure, the overall employment data is still strong and people are looking for work, but if the non-farm payrolls data is a lagging indicator, you have to ask what the November data will look like.

Joseph Richter, an analyst, said wage data were probably the most noteworthy data point in the non-farm report. In the past three months, the average hourly wage growth rate was only 0.23%, compared with 0.4% in the first three months. The slowdown in wage growth is likely to be the driving force behind the improvement in non-housing service inflation data in the coming quarters.

　　Annex Wealth Management首席经济学家Brian Jacobsen表示，劳动力市场朝着更好的平衡迈出了一大步。就业人数增加17.5万人没有错。危险在于，从过热到常温的转变不会就此停止，而是会变得过冷。如果美联储仍有意加息，风险将更大，但它耐心地暂停加息，使劳动力市场过度下行的风险保持在较低水平。

　　摩根大通资产管理公司投资组合经理Priya Misra表示，就业数据“强调了鲍威尔的信心，即货币政策是限制性的、劳动力供应是近几个月来非农就业强劲增长的主要推动力。”就业人数和工资增长的放缓意味着“软着陆”，她认为，“假设CPI也显示出放缓，8月的降息可能会回到市场叙事中。”目前来看，市场预期美联储8月会议将降息10个基点，高于报告前的7个基点。因此，显然需要更多的数据来显示经济放缓，尤其是即将到来的通胀数据。

　　LPL Financial的Quincy Krosby表示，就业报告低于预期。不过，从市场的反应可以看出，这是一个值得市场欢迎的数字。目前，市场非常希望美联储能在今年降息，不希望出现火热的数据。今天的报告无疑为他们提供了一个更冷静的劳动力形势解读。此外，更重要的是，失业率略有上升，这表明劳动力市场有所降温。这对股市很重要的原因是，股市正在寻找任何信号，表明随着劳动力市场的降温，通胀可能会开始回落。因此，这对市场是有利的。

　　加拿大帝国商业银行分析师Ali Jaffery称，市场不要得意忘形。美联储政策制定者希望看到的不仅仅是一个月的良好数据，才会对就业市场引发的通胀压力感到更放心。“总体而言，劳动力市场仍然强劲，他们需要看到更多的证据表明经济放缓，或者就业人数意外大幅下降，在经历了如此强劲的就业增长之后，他们才会担心自己的就业任务。”最终，美联储将按兵不动，直到他们对通胀有了明确的认识。

　　Glenmede投资策略和研究主管Jason Pride表示，从美联储的角度来看，数据全面疲软才是真正重要的，3.9%的失业率并不是什么灾难性的事情。这表明经济并没有急剧下滑，但它肯定表明劳动力市场更加宽松。美联储正在寻找可靠的数据，让他们从长期紧缩的思维过程中抽身出来。需要注意的是，劳动力市场报告是出了名的反复无常，我们本月看到的情况可能与下个月的情况不同。这给了美联储一些希望，但并没有为他们确立趋势。