SafariSpinSafari|假期重点速递丨重磅会议释放积极政策信号；聚焦巴菲特股东大会；券商掘金智能驾驶、量子加密
(1) Big news
1. At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting on May 4, when asked why Berkshire cut its stake in AppleSafariSpinSafariBuffett said it was for tax reasons because the investment yielded a substantial return, not because of his long-term judgment of the stock. He also said it might have something to do with his personal view that US tax rates would be raised to finance the ballooning US fiscal deficit.
2. When it comes to overseas investment, Buffett said that Berkshire's main investment will still focus on the United States. Asked about generative artificial intelligence, Buffett said: "I know nothing about artificial intelligence. It is impossible to estimate the future of AI. It has great potential, but its development makes me nervous. "
3. Referring to Berkshire's huge cash reserves, Buffett said that at the end of the Q1 quarter, cash and Treasury bills totaled $182 billion. It is a reasonable assumption that our cash and Treasury bills will reach $200 billion by the end of the quarter.
4. Talking about the future trend, Buffett said that he will not make a large number of stock purchases, because many companies will not sell and issue shares in large amounts. Buffett also said that the most basic principle of their investment philosophy is Graham's theory.
(2) the latest research and judgment of securities firms
Puyin International Securities: the blockbuster meeting sends positive policy signals and contributes to the recovery of market sentiment.
The blockbuster meeting on April 30th sent a positive policy signal and is expected to improve market sentiment. The meeting pointed out that "there are still many challenges for the continued recovery of the economy", reducing the possibility of a sudden withdrawal of policy stimulus. In addition to reiterating the continued implementation of pro-active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy and emphasizing implementation, the expression of real estate support policy is a bright spot, and we look forward to introducing more specific measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing.
Valuations in the Chinese market are still low, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index trading at 11 / 9 times forward earnings, both below the average over the past five years. After the blockbuster meeting, if the follow-up corresponding support policies continue to land, it will help to continue to boost market sentiment, and the market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
The meeting stressed: "in the light of the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market and the people's new expectations for high-quality housing, we should comprehensively study policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing." It is expected that the next stage will focus on digesting the stock of real estate and optimizing incremental housing to promote a healthy recovery of the real estate industry. In the short term, it may be good for the valuation repair of housing enterprises with abundant reserves and sound operation in the core cities.
The meeting pointed out: "it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand and implement the action plan for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in." It is suggested to pay attention to key areas such as building materials and medical equipment, as well as consumer areas such as automobile industry chain, household industry chain, electronics, sporting goods, hotels, tourism and so on.
In addition, the meeting also pointed out: "it is necessary to strengthen the layout of national strategic scientific and technological forces, cultivate and strengthen emerging industries, advance layout and build future industries, and use advanced technology to enable traditional industries to transform and upgrade. It is necessary to actively develop venture capital and strengthen patient capital. Industries such as advanced manufacturing, new energy, artificial intelligence + robots (300024), biotechnology, aerospace and low-altitude economy are expected to become new engines of China's economic growth.
Huajin Securities: the policy depends on the forward force, and the new quality productivity is the main line.
A major meeting was held on April 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The impact on the market trend is positive, A shares may therefore further shock upward.
The meeting stressed that it is possible to increase the growth rate of infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment and consumption through the effective implementation of established policies, the early issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds, the trade-in of clunkers, and the upgrading of equipment; on the other hand, it is proposed that digesting the stock of real estate and high-quality real estate development is conducive to raising the expectations of real estate sales and investment growth.
In the long-term dimension, the meeting emphasized the consistency of macro policy orientation, indicating that monetary policy will be loose under fiscal force, and stressed the flexible use of interest rates, deposit reserve ratio and other policy tools. The meeting may also boost risk appetite, emphasizing that policies should be implemented forward and effectively, dispelling market concerns about fiscal strength; loosening the tone of real estate than expected, allaying market concerns about economic growth; and the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee focusing on economic development and boosting sentiment.
Impact on industry allocation: new quality productivity related TMT, electric new, automobile, machinery, home appliances and real estate, real estate industry chain may benefit. The meeting focused on the development of new-quality productive forces in line with local conditions, pointing to the advanced layout and construction of future industries, which may benefit the relevant TMT, electric new, machinery, pharmaceutical and other industries; on the other hand, pointing to the use of advanced technology to enable the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, related non-ferrous, chemical, machinery and other industries may benefit. Industries related to expanding domestic demand, such as electricity, home appliances, automobiles, food and beverages, may benefit.
(3) Nuggets in the securities industry
Minsheng Securities: sales of new forces are steady, intelligent driving accelerates landing.
The auto market is poised to start in May, and trade-in + Beijing auto show is expected to boost demand. According to the Federation of passengers, the retail market for narrow passenger cars is expected to be 160 in April.SafariSpinSafariAbout .000 vehicles, down 1.5% from the same period last year and 5.3% from the previous month. New energy retail is expected to be about 720000 vehicles, the same as last month, an increase of 37.1% year-on-year, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 45.0%. Consumers are expecting new cars at the policy and auto show in April, so they are in a strong wait-and-see mood. With the introduction of the trade-in policy at the end of April and the opening of the Beijing auto show, consumers are paying more attention to the car market. It is expected to stimulate the early pent-up demand for cars to accelerate the release.
Various car companies accelerate the landing of smart drivers, which is expected to strengthen consumer certification. The car companies represented by Xiaopeng and Huawei have been iterating and promoting smart driving since 2024. In April, Xiaopeng's XNGP intelligent driving assistance system has covered all 260 cities across the country, and the scope of Kaesong continues to expand. In March, the world launched a full-volume NCA pilot in Wutu City, leading the industry in smart driving capability. after the launch of the model, it is expected to lead to a rapid increase in the penetration rate of high-order self-driving.
The era of standard smart cars has come, and the head car companies that can find the selling points of differentiation and take the lead in smart driving technology will form differentiation in 2024-2025 and enjoy a valuation premium.
电动智能重塑秩序，优质自主零部件供应商凭借性价比和快速响应能力获得更多配套，全球化进程加快，打破外资垄断格局。建议关注新势力产业链，华为产业链包括沪光股份、瑞鹄模具、文灿股份(603348)等；小米产业链包括无锡振华、经纬恒润、继峰股份(603997)等。
天风证券：量子加密，一片新蓝海
量子科技竞赛加速，经典密码有必要考虑向PQC迁移（量子软加密）：2023年12月IBM推出1000多个量子位的量子计算机。2024年4月初，微软也跟量子计算合作，在容错方面取得了较大突破。
QKD硬加密适用特定场景，PQC（量子软加密）有望实现广泛覆盖：QKD量子密钥分发是一种密钥的安全传输方式，基于物理原理，需要专用的物理设备，可以在两个相距遥远的通信端之间进行密钥的发送；PQC是能够抵抗量子计算对现有密码算法攻击的新一代密码算法，研究密码算法在量子环境下的安全性，并设计在经典和量子环境下均具有安全性的密码系统。
美国PQC（量子软加密）加速标准2024年已建立，要求2023年前完成密码体系迁移。此外，欧洲及日韩在PQC迁移及标准建立均有相关的研究与进展，为应对美国的量子计算发展带来的安全性挑战，国内后量子密码研发及试点或将加速，以替代经典密码算法。
从替换节奏看，金融行业尤其是银行作为国民经济重要领域，涉及大量的核心数据和交易信息，相比于其他行业有望更早地采取相应的措施过渡到后量子密码体系。替换加速，预计2029年市场规模约700亿元。参考美国替换进度，中国过去数年投入的密码产品可能在未来五年重新替换为PQC量子加密产品。根据Inside Quantum Technology测算，预计到2029年后量子密码软件和芯片市场规模将达到95亿美元，约合人民币689亿元。
量子产业或成为全球科技竞赛的下一站，建议关注三大方向：量子安全、量子计算、量子测量。量子加密方面包括信安世纪、国盾量子、神州信息(000555)等；量子计算方面包括国盾量子、普源精电、科华数据等；量子测量方面包括科大国创(300520)、天奥电子(002935)。
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